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evening Jan 15, 2026 · Episode 25 3-2 · +0.8u

Grizzlies, Thunder & More

POSITIONS

Grizzlies vs. Magic

TOP PICK NBA WIN

Grizzlies vs. Magic: Under 231.5

Our model projects a 56.5% probability for the Under, as the market hasn't fully adjusted for a Grizzlies offense missing Ja Morant (calf) and Zach Edey (ankle) while playing at a neutral site in Berlin. Memphis has seen the Under hit in four of their last five games, posting a dismal 108.9 offensive rating during that stretch without their primary shot creators. This limited firepower faces an Orlando defense that remains the gold standard for shot suppression, likely leading to a low-efficiency, grinding tempo in this international matchup.

Thunder vs. Rockets

While the Rockets rank third in scoring defense and lead the league in rebounding, they must contend with a Thunder squad that ranks first in points allowed (108.1) and is riding a four-game winning streak. We are backing the superior efficiency of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has extended his historic 20-point scoring streak to 111 games, against a Houston rotation missing key defensive pieces like Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith. Despite the return of Alperen Sengun, the Thunder’s elite transition pressure is expected to outpace a Rockets unit still adjusting to the long-term absence of Fred VanVleet.

Jazz vs. Mavericks

No significant news found

Canucks vs. Blue Jackets

We are backing Vancouver as a contrarian 'sell low' play against a Columbus team currently overvalued following Rick Bowness’ successful coaching debut on Tuesday. While the Canucks are mired in an eight-game skid, they conclude their grueling season-long road trip with elite production from Elias Pettersson, who has netted 10 goals in his last 20 games. By fading the public’s 60% backing of the Blue Jackets, we are betting on the Canucks' higher talent ceiling to stabilize and provide massive value in this spot.

Stars vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Over

Our confidence in the Over 5.5 is fueled by the Stars' elite power play, which currently ranks 2nd in the NHL (28.47%) and faces a Utah penalty kill struggling at a 78.4% efficiency rate. Following Utah’s explosive 6-1 victory over Toronto and the recent defensive vulnerability of a Stars unit missing top defenseman Miro Heiskanen, both teams are trending toward high-scoring outcomes. With Stars captain Jamie Benn back in the lineup and Utah's Dylan Guenther coming off a two-goal performance, the offensive metrics suggest this matchup will comfortably exceed the 5.5-goal threshold.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Capitalize on massive closing line value as we break down the Mavericks spread movement and the impact of Jayson Tatum absence on the Celtics total. From NHL regression plays to a high-upside underdog pick against the Lakers, we identify the sharpest entries on the board tonight.

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