morning
Jan 17, 2026 · Episode 28
2-3 · -0.8u
Wild, Islanders & More
POSITIONS
Wild vs. Sabres
TOP PICK
NHL
WIN
Wild +1.5
Entry
68%
Volume
$366K
P&L
+0.32u
While Buffalo has won 13 of their last 15 games, their underlying metrics signal a massive regression is imminent as they are being outplayed with a subpar 47.37% CF and a league-high, unsustainable 11.30% shooting percentage. We expect the Wild to keep this within a goal or win outright behind goaltender Jesper Wallstedt (.921 SV%), who provides the stability needed to neutralize a Sabres offense currently missing key center Josh Norris.
Islanders vs. Flames
NHL
LOSS
Islanders Moneyline
Entry
50%
Volume
$68K
P&L
-0.51u
Our defensive structure remains the primary edge, as the Islanders have held opponents to just 2.4 goals per game over their last 10 contests (6-3-1). This stability is amplified by Calgary's offensive struggles following the loss of top-six forward Blake Coleman to IR and their 27th-ranked power play. With the Islanders boasting a league-best 12-4-0 record in one-goal games and David Rittich confirmed to start against his former team, New York is positioned to stifle a depleted Flames attack.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Basketball
LOSS
Illinois Fighting Illini -15.5
Entry
54%
Volume
$12K
P&L
-0.54u
Our projected 19-point margin is supported by Illinois' elite #3 national ranking in offensive efficiency and a six-game winning streak led by freshman Keaton Wagler, who recently notched 22 points against Northwestern. Minnesota enters Champaign severely shorthanded, missing starters Chansey Willis Jr. and Robert Vaihola to season-ending injuries while relying on a thin seven-man rotation. Given the Gophers' road struggles and the Illini's history of eight consecutive wins in this series, the home favorite is well-positioned to exploit this significant depth and efficiency mismatch.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
SPEC
Basketball
LOSS
North Carolina State Wolfpack -14.5
Entry
57%
Volume
$11K
P&L
-0.57u
Our pick targets the massive discrepancy in transition efficiency, underscored by NC State’s record-breaking 113-69 rout of Florida State where they tied an ACC record with 19 triples. Georgia Tech enters on a three-game skid and likely remains without interior anchor Mouhamed Sylla, leaving them vulnerable to a Wolfpack offense that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency. We expect NC State’s relentless tempo and elite ball security to overwhelm a Yellow Jackets defense that just surrendered 89 points in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs
SPEC
Basketball
WIN
Under 154.5
Entry
52%
Volume
$14K
P&L
+0.47u
While the market anticipates a high-paced shootout based on season averages, our 4.2-point variance favors the Under, anchored by a series history where both 2025 meetings failed to clear 115 total points. Virginia’s defense remains elite, recently holding a ranked Louisville squad to 70 points and recording a 14-0 opening run, while offensive rhythm remains a concern as top shooter Jacari White works back from a broken wrist. With SMU’s leading scorer Boopie Miller also recovering from a lingering illness, this high-intensity ACC clash at Moody Coliseum is primed to be a defensive grind that stays well below the 154.5-point threshold.
LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE
We break down the data behind a massive slate, focusing on NHL regression targets and college basketball rotation mismatches. Discover why the math favors the Wild and Islanders on the ice, and why Virginia's glacial pace creates a high-conviction play.
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