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daily Jan 21, 2026 · Episode 35 4-1 · +1.4u

Cavaliers, Thunder & More

MORNING POSITIONS

Cavaliers vs. Hornets

TOP PICK NBA WIN

Jarrett Allen Under 13.5 Points

Jarrett Allen's usage remains in the bottom decile for starting centers (14.2%) while his recent scoring has dipped to an average of just 12.0 points over his last five games. With Evan Mobley back in the frontcourt and the offense funneling through Donovan Mitchell and rookie Jaylon Tyson during Darius Garland's absence (toe sprain), we expect significant volume resistance to continue. Coming off three 'under' performances in his last four outings, Allen faces high-confidence efficiency regression against a Charlotte team seeing more perimeter-oriented shot distribution from Cleveland.

Thunder vs. Bucks

We are targeting a first-half scoring surge as Oklahoma City (1st in Transition EPA) enters Milwaukee in elite rhythm, fresh off a 136-point clinic against Cleveland where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren combined for 58 points. While the Thunder are missing Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, their league-leading offensive efficiency remains potent against a Bucks unit dealing with its own health concerns, including questionable tags for rim protector Myles Turner and guard Kevin Porter Jr. Expect the Thunder’s high-speed transition attack to exploit these defensive gaps from the opening tip.

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs

Red Wings Moneyline

Detroit’s status as a slight underdog (+110) despite holding first place in the Atlantic and a 3-0 head-to-head record over Toronto this season presents a glaring market discrepancy. The Maple Leafs enter this matchup having lost three of their last four while surrendering 21 goals in that span, and they will be without leading scorer William Nylander (IR) and defenseman Chris Tanev. We are backing the Red Wings' top-six power play to exploit a Toronto defense that ranks 27th in goals against, especially with John Gibson currently riding a five-game personal win streak.

Penguins vs. Flames

Our data's projected 14% drop in xGF/60 is reinforced by a depleted Pittsburgh blue line missing Erik Karlsson (IR) and potentially Kris Letang (day-to-day), coupled with a Calgary offense averaging just 2.4 goals over their last 10 games. Following the Flames' recent trade of top defenseman Rasmus Andersson and the absence of leading scorer Blake Coleman, this matchup mirrors the 2-1 defensive struggle seen in their January 10 meeting, making the under 6.5 a high-probability play.

Capitals vs. Canucks

Capitals Moneyline

The Capitals’ elite 5v5 shooting efficiency and Vancouver’s defensive struggles (-0.12 PK EPA) are magnified by the Canucks’ current 11-game losing streak and the absence of starting goalie Thatcher Demko (IR). With Vancouver allowing a league-high 3.65 goals per game and holding a dismal 4-14-3 home record, Washington’s top-10 offense faces a prime opportunity to exploit a team in complete freefall.

EVENING UPDATE

Cavaliers vs. Hornets

TOP PICK NBA WIN

Jarrett Allen Under 13.5 Points

Jarrett Allen's usage remains in the bottom decile for starting centers (14.2%) while his recent scoring has dipped to an average of just 12.0 points over his last five games. With Evan Mobley back in the frontcourt and the offense funneling through Donovan Mitchell and rookie Jaylon Tyson during Darius Garland's absence (toe sprain), we expect significant volume resistance to continue. Coming off three 'under' performances in his last four outings, Allen faces high-confidence efficiency regression against a Charlotte team seeing more perimeter-oriented shot distribution from Cleveland.

Thunder vs. Bucks

We are targeting a first-half scoring surge as Oklahoma City (1st in Transition EPA) enters Milwaukee in elite rhythm, fresh off a 136-point clinic against Cleveland where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren combined for 58 points. While the Thunder are missing Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, their league-leading offensive efficiency remains potent against a Bucks unit dealing with its own health concerns, including questionable tags for rim protector Myles Turner and guard Kevin Porter Jr. Expect the Thunder’s high-speed transition attack to exploit these defensive gaps from the opening tip.

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs

Red Wings Moneyline

Detroit’s status as a slight underdog (+110) despite holding first place in the Atlantic and a 3-0 head-to-head record over Toronto this season presents a glaring market discrepancy. The Maple Leafs enter this matchup having lost three of their last four while surrendering 21 goals in that span, and they will be without leading scorer William Nylander (IR) and defenseman Chris Tanev. We are backing the Red Wings' top-six power play to exploit a Toronto defense that ranks 27th in goals against, especially with John Gibson currently riding a five-game personal win streak.

Penguins vs. Flames

Our data's projected 14% drop in xGF/60 is reinforced by a depleted Pittsburgh blue line missing Erik Karlsson (IR) and potentially Kris Letang (day-to-day), coupled with a Calgary offense averaging just 2.4 goals over their last 10 games. Following the Flames' recent trade of top defenseman Rasmus Andersson and the absence of leading scorer Blake Coleman, this matchup mirrors the 2-1 defensive struggle seen in their January 10 meeting, making the under 6.5 a high-probability play.

Capitals vs. Canucks

Capitals Moneyline

The Capitals’ elite 5v5 shooting efficiency and Vancouver’s defensive struggles (-0.12 PK EPA) are magnified by the Canucks’ current 11-game losing streak and the absence of starting goalie Thatcher Demko (IR). With Vancouver allowing a league-high 3.65 goals per game and holding a dismal 4-14-3 home record, Washington’s top-10 offense faces a prime opportunity to exploit a team in complete freefall.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Late-breaking injury reports and goalie confirmations are reshaping the value on tonight’s NBA and NHL slates. We break down the impact of Jaylen Brown's increased usage in Boston and a high-probability double-down on the ice.

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