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daily Jan 23, 2026 · Episode 40 1-4 · -1.8u

Rockets, Suns & More

MORNING POSITIONS

Rockets vs. Pistons

TOP PICK NBA LOSS

Our data-backed preference for Detroit is bolstered by their league-leading 99.5 defensive rating in January and a dominant 18-4 home record. We expect the Pistons’ +3.2 Net Rating improvement to overwhelm a weary Rockets team currently on a five-game road skid and playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a grueling overtime loss in Philadelphia yesterday. Houston’s significant 8.2% dip in road offensive success rate makes this a prime spot for the Eastern Conference leaders to exploit a frustrated Rockets offense that struggled through a 12-of-24 free-throw performance in their last outing.

We are targeting the Over because Atlanta operates at a league-leading pace (106.1 possessions) while surrendering a high 118.4 points per game. Combined with a fully healthy Phoenix roster following Jalen Green's recent return and Jalen Johnson’s elite form for the Hawks—fresh off a 32-point, 15-rebound performance—this matchup projects as a high-octane transition battle that should easily exceed the total.

Pacers vs. Thunder

We are capitalizing on Oklahoma City’s record-shattering +13.4 Net Rating against a Pacers team that has spiraled to the Eastern Conference's worst record (10-35) following Tyrese Haliburton’s season-ending Achilles injury. Despite a depleted roster, the Thunder are coming off a 20-point blowout of Milwaukee fueled by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 40-point masterclass, while Indiana’s 29th-ranked defense has surrendered an average margin of 22.3 points over their last three losses. Our data indicates that the Pacers lack the defensive infrastructure to contain an OKC attack that currently leads the NBA in both scoring and defensive efficiency.

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs

We are targeting the Over 5.5 as these teams recently combined for 11 goals in their January 15th meeting, and both enter tonight with elite offensive momentum led by Jack Eichel’s active 10-game point streak. Toronto’s blue line is currently decimated by injuries to 75% of their top-four defensive core, including recent blows to Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Carlo, which heavily favors a Vegas unit ranking in the Top 10 for expected goals. With the Maple Leafs sitting 25th in goals surrendered while maintaining a Top 8 power play, the matchup is primed for another high-speed shootout.

Capitals vs. Flames

We back Calgary as their 8th-ranked 5v5 High-Danger Chance Suppression provides a high floor against a Capitals team currently mired in a four-game losing streak. While Washington is hopeful to regain leading scorer Tom Wilson tonight, the Flames' reliable 13-8-3 home record and the recent struggles of Caps' goalie Logan Thompson suggest a highly competitive, one-score environment. Our selection relies on Calgary’s defensive discipline to keep the game tight at the Saddledome, even with top winger Jonathan Huberdeau listed as day-to-day.

EVENING UPDATE

Rockets vs. Pistons

TOP PICK NBA LOSS

Our data-backed preference for Detroit is bolstered by their league-leading 99.5 defensive rating in January and a dominant 18-4 home record. We expect the Pistons’ +3.2 Net Rating improvement to overwhelm a weary Rockets team currently on a five-game road skid and playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a grueling overtime loss in Philadelphia yesterday. Houston’s significant 8.2% dip in road offensive success rate makes this a prime spot for the Eastern Conference leaders to exploit a frustrated Rockets offense that struggled through a 12-of-24 free-throw performance in their last outing.

We are targeting the Over because Atlanta operates at a league-leading pace (106.1 possessions) while surrendering a high 118.4 points per game. Combined with a fully healthy Phoenix roster following Jalen Green's recent return and Jalen Johnson’s elite form for the Hawks—fresh off a 32-point, 15-rebound performance—this matchup projects as a high-octane transition battle that should easily exceed the total.

Pacers vs. Thunder

We are capitalizing on Oklahoma City’s record-shattering +13.4 Net Rating against a Pacers team that has spiraled to the Eastern Conference's worst record (10-35) following Tyrese Haliburton’s season-ending Achilles injury. Despite a depleted roster, the Thunder are coming off a 20-point blowout of Milwaukee fueled by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 40-point masterclass, while Indiana’s 29th-ranked defense has surrendered an average margin of 22.3 points over their last three losses. Our data indicates that the Pacers lack the defensive infrastructure to contain an OKC attack that currently leads the NBA in both scoring and defensive efficiency.

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs

We are targeting the Over 5.5 as these teams recently combined for 11 goals in their January 15th meeting, and both enter tonight with elite offensive momentum led by Jack Eichel’s active 10-game point streak. Toronto’s blue line is currently decimated by injuries to 75% of their top-four defensive core, including recent blows to Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Carlo, which heavily favors a Vegas unit ranking in the Top 10 for expected goals. With the Maple Leafs sitting 25th in goals surrendered while maintaining a Top 8 power play, the matchup is primed for another high-speed shootout.

Capitals vs. Flames

We back Calgary as their 8th-ranked 5v5 High-Danger Chance Suppression provides a high floor against a Capitals team currently mired in a four-game losing streak. While Washington is hopeful to regain leading scorer Tom Wilson tonight, the Flames' reliable 13-8-3 home record and the recent struggles of Caps' goalie Logan Thompson suggest a highly competitive, one-score environment. Our selection relies on Calgary’s defensive discipline to keep the game tight at the Saddledome, even with top winger Jonathan Huberdeau listed as day-to-day.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Tonight's slate is defined by massive injury shifts, including Nikola Jokic being ruled out in Milwaukee and a high-usage spot for Jaylen Brown in Brooklyn. We dive into the late-breaking data on Polymarket to lock in positions for the Thunder, Pelicans, and more.

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