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daily Jan 25, 2026 · Episode 44 5-0 · +2.2u

Patriots, Rams & More

MORNING POSITIONS

Patriots vs. Broncos

TOP PICK NFL WIN

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

While Denver struggled with efficiency metrics throughout the season (30th in EPA allowed per rush), their run defense was most recently exposed for 183 rushing yards in last week's Divisional Round. Rhamondre Stevenson enters the AFC Championship as New England’s clear RB1, totaling 123 yards over his last two playoff games and fully recovering from a minor eye injury suffered on January 18. With the Patriots favored by 4.5 and Denver forced to start backup QB Jarrett Stidham, a high-volume, run-heavy game script creates an ideal environment for Stevenson to clear 48.5 yards.

Rams vs. Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown

With Zach Charbonnet sidelined by a season-ending ACL injury, Kenneth Walker III enters the NFC Championship in a workhorse role after a dominant three-touchdown performance last weekend. We expect Seattle to lean on Walker to anchor the offense for a limited Sam Darnold, exploiting a Rams defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Rush in high-leverage scoring situations.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs

We are prioritizing the Avalanche due to their league-leading offensive production. Colorado ranks 1st in the NHL in Expected Goals For (3.2 xGF/60). They face a Toronto unit that has shown vulnerability on the road, ranking in the bottom 10 for Expected Goals Against (xGA). This offensive-firepower-vs-defensive-regression angle provides a strong 61.5% edge.

Golden Knights vs. Senators

Our 'Dog of the Day' selection focuses on Ottawa's elite puck-possession metrics, currently ranking 10th in the NHL in CF/60, which suggests they can dictate the pace of play. This matches up favorably against a Vegas squad facing significant goaltending regression with a .895 team save percentage over their last five games. No significant news found regarding recent injury returns or roster changes to further influence the narrative.

Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bulls

SPEC Basketball WIN

South Florida Bulls -4.5

We are laying the short number with the Bulls as their 14th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency faces an FAU offense struggling with ball security and the questionable status of guard Max Langenfeld. South Florida enters this home matchup with significant momentum following an 82-69 statement win over UAB, powered by Joseph Pinion’s back-to-back 20-point games and 11 total three-pointers in that span. With the Bulls leading the AAC in rebounding and assists, their superior physical form and home-court advantage at the Yuengling Center should easily overwhelm a regressing FAU squad.

EVENING UPDATE

Patriots vs. Broncos

TOP PICK NFL WIN

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

While Denver struggled with efficiency metrics throughout the season (30th in EPA allowed per rush), their run defense was most recently exposed for 183 rushing yards in last week's Divisional Round. Rhamondre Stevenson enters the AFC Championship as New England’s clear RB1, totaling 123 yards over his last two playoff games and fully recovering from a minor eye injury suffered on January 18. With the Patriots favored by 4.5 and Denver forced to start backup QB Jarrett Stidham, a high-volume, run-heavy game script creates an ideal environment for Stevenson to clear 48.5 yards.

Rams vs. Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown

With Zach Charbonnet sidelined by a season-ending ACL injury, Kenneth Walker III enters the NFC Championship in a workhorse role after a dominant three-touchdown performance last weekend. We expect Seattle to lean on Walker to anchor the offense for a limited Sam Darnold, exploiting a Rams defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Rush in high-leverage scoring situations.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs

We are prioritizing the Avalanche due to their league-leading offensive production. Colorado ranks 1st in the NHL in Expected Goals For (3.2 xGF/60). They face a Toronto unit that has shown vulnerability on the road, ranking in the bottom 10 for Expected Goals Against (xGA). This offensive-firepower-vs-defensive-regression angle provides a strong 61.5% edge.

Golden Knights vs. Senators

Our 'Dog of the Day' selection focuses on Ottawa's elite puck-possession metrics, currently ranking 10th in the NHL in CF/60, which suggests they can dictate the pace of play. This matches up favorably against a Vegas squad facing significant goaltending regression with a .895 team save percentage over their last five games. No significant news found regarding recent injury returns or roster changes to further influence the narrative.

Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bulls

SPEC Basketball WIN

South Florida Bulls -4.5

We are laying the short number with the Bulls as their 14th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency faces an FAU offense struggling with ball security and the questionable status of guard Max Langenfeld. South Florida enters this home matchup with significant momentum following an 82-69 statement win over UAB, powered by Joseph Pinion’s back-to-back 20-point games and 11 total three-pointers in that span. With the Bulls leading the AAC in rebounding and assists, their superior physical form and home-court advantage at the Yuengling Center should easily overwhelm a regressing FAU squad.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Dive into the latest NFL championship odds and NBA market-lag opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi. We break down winning bets from the AFC title game and highlight high-conviction plays for the evening card.

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