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daily Feb 12, 2026 · Episode 85 3-2 · +0.4u

Bucks, Trail Blazers & More

MORNING POSITIONS

Bucks vs. Thunder

TOP PICK NBA WIN

Our +14.5 cushion is reinforced by the high floor of our 2nd-ranked perimeter shooting (39.2% 3P) and the fact that both teams will be without their superstars, as Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) remain sidelined. We also factor in the likely absence of OKC’s secondary star Jalen Williams (hamstring) against a surging Milwaukee squad that has won four of its last five, led by Cam Thomas’s 34-point eruption and Kevin Porter Jr.’s triple-double just yesterday. This confluence of Thunder injuries and recent Bucks offensive form makes a 15-point blowout highly improbable.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

Vít Krejčí: Points Over 8.5

We are targeting the Over on Vít Krejčí’s points as he steps into an expanded role for a Portland rotation missing Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe. Following his recent trade from Atlanta to fill Portland's shooting void, Krejčí’s floor is elevated by a matchup against a Jazz defense that ranks 30th in efficiency and allows a league-high 126.4 points per game. With Utah also missing defensive anchor Walker Kessler, Krejčí’s 42.3% three-point shooting is primed to exploit a high-pace environment that currently yields the most scoring opportunities in the NBA.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

Toumani Camara: Rebounds Under 5.5

We are targeting the under as Camara’s role has shifted significantly toward perimeter scoring, highlighted by his career-high 30-point performance and eight triples just three days ago. Despite heavy minutes, he has averaged only 4.7 rebounds over his last three contests and recorded just 3 boards in his most recent outing. With Portland playing the second leg of a back-to-back and rookie Donovan Clingan emerging as a dominant force on the glass, Camara’s positioning as a floor spacer limits his rebounding opportunities in this high-paced matchup.

Mavericks vs. Lakers

Naji Marshall: Points Under 18.5

While the Mavericks play at a top-10 pace, we expect Marshall to stay under this total as he is currently hampered by a left foot strain and is projected to return to a bench role. With Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, and Cooper Flagg all officially ruled out for tonight, Marshall will face the full weight of a Lakers defense that can now focus exclusively on neutralizing him as the primary remaining threat in a low-assist offense.

Mavericks vs. Lakers

P.J. Washington: Rebounds Under 5.5

We are identifying a market inefficiency where 59% of public action is backing the 'Over', despite Washington averaging just 5.1 rebounds over his last 10 games while operating on a limited 26-minute workload since returning from a concussion. With Dallas missing star rookie Cooper Flagg (foot) and primary rebounder Dereck Lively II (season-ending surgery), the Lakers’ return of Deandre Ayton and LeBron James creates a crowded interior that favors traditional centers, leaving Washington to struggle for boards in a perimeter-spacing role.

EVENING UPDATE

Bucks vs. Thunder

TOP PICK NBA WIN

Our +14.5 cushion is reinforced by the high floor of our 2nd-ranked perimeter shooting (39.2% 3P) and the fact that both teams will be without their superstars, as Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) remain sidelined. We also factor in the likely absence of OKC’s secondary star Jalen Williams (hamstring) against a surging Milwaukee squad that has won four of its last five, led by Cam Thomas’s 34-point eruption and Kevin Porter Jr.’s triple-double just yesterday. This confluence of Thunder injuries and recent Bucks offensive form makes a 15-point blowout highly improbable.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

Vít Krejčí: Points Over 8.5

We are targeting the Over on Vít Krejčí’s points as he steps into an expanded role for a Portland rotation missing Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe. Following his recent trade from Atlanta to fill Portland's shooting void, Krejčí’s floor is elevated by a matchup against a Jazz defense that ranks 30th in efficiency and allows a league-high 126.4 points per game. With Utah also missing defensive anchor Walker Kessler, Krejčí’s 42.3% three-point shooting is primed to exploit a high-pace environment that currently yields the most scoring opportunities in the NBA.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

Toumani Camara: Rebounds Under 5.5

We are targeting the under as Camara’s role has shifted significantly toward perimeter scoring, highlighted by his career-high 30-point performance and eight triples just three days ago. Despite heavy minutes, he has averaged only 4.7 rebounds over his last three contests and recorded just 3 boards in his most recent outing. With Portland playing the second leg of a back-to-back and rookie Donovan Clingan emerging as a dominant force on the glass, Camara’s positioning as a floor spacer limits his rebounding opportunities in this high-paced matchup.

Mavericks vs. Lakers

Naji Marshall: Points Under 18.5

While the Mavericks play at a top-10 pace, we expect Marshall to stay under this total as he is currently hampered by a left foot strain and is projected to return to a bench role. With Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, and Cooper Flagg all officially ruled out for tonight, Marshall will face the full weight of a Lakers defense that can now focus exclusively on neutralizing him as the primary remaining threat in a low-assist offense.

Mavericks vs. Lakers

P.J. Washington: Rebounds Under 5.5

We are identifying a market inefficiency where 59% of public action is backing the 'Over', despite Washington averaging just 5.1 rebounds over his last 10 games while operating on a limited 26-minute workload since returning from a concussion. With Dallas missing star rookie Cooper Flagg (foot) and primary rebounder Dereck Lively II (season-ending surgery), the Lakers’ return of Deandre Ayton and LeBron James creates a crowded interior that favors traditional centers, leaving Washington to struggle for boards in a perimeter-spacing role.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Alex and Marcus break down a massive Thursday slate with high-conviction holds on the Bucks and sharp value on North Texas. Track the latest shifting odds and player prop bets on Kalshi and Polymarket before the evening games tip off.

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