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daily Feb 22, 2026 · Episode 106 1-4 · -1.6u

Cavaliers, Hornets & More

MORNING POSITIONS

Cavaliers vs. Thunder

TOP PICK NBA LOSS

We are backing Cleveland’s interior dominance as they face an Oklahoma City squad missing its primary engines, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, due to injury. With Evan Mobley returning from rest to rejoin a surging Jarrett Allen—who is averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds this month—the Cavaliers are primed to exploit a Thunder rotation that ranks as the league's second-worst offensive rebounding unit. This size advantage, bolstered by the recent addition of James Harden to the Cavs' backcourt, should allow Cleveland to maintain a high floor against shooting variance and extend their seven-game winning streak.

Hornets vs. Wizards

Bub Carrington: Points Over 10.5

Our pick leverages Bub Carrington's sustained volume, as he has cleared this 10.5-point threshold in nine of his last ten outings while seeing a 23.3% usage rate over the last 14 days—a significant jump from his 17.6% season average. With the Wizards missing Trae Young (knee), Alex Sarr (hamstring), and D'Angelo Russell (trade status), Carrington is cemented as a primary offensive engine against a Hornets defense that allows 114.2 points on the road and struggles to contain high-volume perimeter shooters.

Celtics vs. Lakers

LeBron James: Rebounds Over 5.5

LeBron James historically exceeds 5.5 rebounds in 72% of matchups against Boston, and this 39.5% implied probability fails to account for a Lakers squad currently ranked 28th in rebounding. With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined for the Celtics and James averaging 6.8 boards over his last four appearances, he remains essential to anchoring the glass in a Lakers frontcourt that has shifted significantly following the Anthony Davis-for-Luka Doncic blockbuster trade.

Knicks vs. Bulls

Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds Over 10.5

Our analysis finds Towns in prime position to exploit a significant interior mismatch, as he currently ranks second in the NBA with 11.9 rebounds per game and has cleared 10.5 boards in four of his last five outings. He faces a Chicago squad on an eight-game losing streak that is starting an undersized frontcourt featuring Guerschon Yabusele at center, leaving them ill-equipped to counter a Knicks scheme that has won seven of its last ten games under Mike Brown.

Trail Blazers vs. Suns

Pricing the Blazers as favorites is a classic liquidity trap, over-correcting for a Portland team that has allowed 125.9 PPG over their last 10 games while missing Damian Lillard (season-ending Achilles) and Shaedon Sharpe (calf). Institutional positioning favors the Suns’ superior depth, which sustained Devin Booker’s hip injury absence in an overtime win against Orlando yesterday led by Jalen Green's 26 points. Phoenix's 33-24 record and 130-125 head-to-head victory earlier this month suggest the market’s 41.5% implied probability for the Suns is a significant undervaluation.

EVENING UPDATE

Cavaliers vs. Thunder

TOP PICK NBA LOSS

We are backing Cleveland’s interior dominance as they face an Oklahoma City squad missing its primary engines, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, due to injury. With Evan Mobley returning from rest to rejoin a surging Jarrett Allen—who is averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds this month—the Cavaliers are primed to exploit a Thunder rotation that ranks as the league's second-worst offensive rebounding unit. This size advantage, bolstered by the recent addition of James Harden to the Cavs' backcourt, should allow Cleveland to maintain a high floor against shooting variance and extend their seven-game winning streak.

Hornets vs. Wizards

Bub Carrington: Points Over 10.5

Our pick leverages Bub Carrington's sustained volume, as he has cleared this 10.5-point threshold in nine of his last ten outings while seeing a 23.3% usage rate over the last 14 days—a significant jump from his 17.6% season average. With the Wizards missing Trae Young (knee), Alex Sarr (hamstring), and D'Angelo Russell (trade status), Carrington is cemented as a primary offensive engine against a Hornets defense that allows 114.2 points on the road and struggles to contain high-volume perimeter shooters.

Celtics vs. Lakers

LeBron James: Rebounds Over 5.5

LeBron James historically exceeds 5.5 rebounds in 72% of matchups against Boston, and this 39.5% implied probability fails to account for a Lakers squad currently ranked 28th in rebounding. With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined for the Celtics and James averaging 6.8 boards over his last four appearances, he remains essential to anchoring the glass in a Lakers frontcourt that has shifted significantly following the Anthony Davis-for-Luka Doncic blockbuster trade.

Knicks vs. Bulls

Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds Over 10.5

Our analysis finds Towns in prime position to exploit a significant interior mismatch, as he currently ranks second in the NBA with 11.9 rebounds per game and has cleared 10.5 boards in four of his last five outings. He faces a Chicago squad on an eight-game losing streak that is starting an undersized frontcourt featuring Guerschon Yabusele at center, leaving them ill-equipped to counter a Knicks scheme that has won seven of its last ten games under Mike Brown.

Trail Blazers vs. Suns

Pricing the Blazers as favorites is a classic liquidity trap, over-correcting for a Portland team that has allowed 125.9 PPG over their last 10 games while missing Damian Lillard (season-ending Achilles) and Shaedon Sharpe (calf). Institutional positioning favors the Suns’ superior depth, which sustained Devin Booker’s hip injury absence in an overtime win against Orlando yesterday led by Jalen Green's 26 points. Phoenix's 33-24 record and 130-125 head-to-head victory earlier this month suggest the market’s 41.5% implied probability for the Suns is a significant undervaluation.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Alex and Marcus break down the shifting NBA odds for Sunday's slate, focusing on a high-conviction play for Tyrese Maxey. Learn how sharp money is moving on Polymarket and Kalshi for the night's biggest games.

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