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evening Mar 11, 2026 · Episode 144 2-1 · +0.3u

Cavaliers, Raptors & More

POSITIONS

Cavaliers vs. Magic

TOP PICK NBA WIN

Donovan Mitchell Under 26.5 Points

We are targeting the Under as Orlando’s elite perimeter defense and Jalen Suggs’ point-of-attack pressure present a significant hurdle, especially with Mitchell coming off a 17-point performance on March 9 where he deferred heavily to new backcourt partner James Harden. Our outlook is suppressed by Mitchell's recent return from a four-game groin injury absence and the shift in Cleveland's offensive hierarchy, which has lowered his shot floor against a Magic unit currently on a four-game winning streak.

Raptors vs. Pelicans

Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points

Zion enters this matchup following a efficient 20-point performance in just 23 minutes against Washington on March 8, maintaining a high floor as the Pelicans' primary interior force. He faces a Raptors squad on the second leg of a back-to-back that currently ranks 4th-worst in the NBA for points allowed in the paint (53.3 per game). With Toronto’s primary rim protector Jakob Poeltl currently questionable due to illness, Zion is positioned to exploit a fatigued interior defense and exceed his 22.5-point line.

Knicks vs. Jazz

Josh Hart Over 7.5 Rebounds

Our 9.1 RPG projection for Hart is reinforced by his 13-rebound dominance against the Clippers on March 9 and a consistent 74% season success rate at this 7.5 threshold. With the Jazz officially ruling out primary rim protectors Walker Kessler and Jusuf Nurkic, Hart is positioned to exploit a depleted Utah interior, creating a significant market vacuum that is currently underpriced at a 14.5% implied probability edge.

Knicks vs. Jazz

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points

Towns enters tonight’s matchup in elite form, coming off a 35-point performance against the Clippers on March 9 and averaging 23.0 PPG over his last five games. The Jazz interior is severely compromised with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Jusuf Nurkic all sidelined, leaving a defense that ranks 30th in the NBA in defensive rating (122.3) to rely on a depleted frontcourt. With Josh Hart confirmed out today, expect Towns to maintain high usage as a primary scoring option against a Utah rotation lacking the size and experience to contain him.

Capitals vs. Flyers

Flyers Moneyline

In a high-volume ($743k) divisional rivalry, we find significant value on the home underdog as the public overvalues the Capitals' 7-3 win over Calgary and the narrative of Alex Ovechkin chasing his 1,000th career goal. Historical data for this liquidity tier shows home underdogs win at a 49% clip, creating a profitable edge against the 46.5% market price, especially with Washington entering tonight on a three-game road losing streak while both teams fight to stay within nine points of the Eastern Conference playoff line.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE

Alex and Marcus break down the sharpest NBA and NHL bets for the night slate, highlighting high-conviction props for the Knicks and Jazz. Discover how injury reports are shifting the odds on Kalshi and Polymarket for tonight's action.

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