Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb analyze a high-volume session to identify where the sharpest bets missed out on massive alpha. Learn how the Pace Inflation Hypothesis is changing the way traders price basketball odds on Kalshi and Polymarket.

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📜 The Ledger: Midweek/Weekend Recap (Friday, Mar 13, 2026)

📈 Session Stats

Record: 21-6-1 (28 games) Units: +6.7u

🏆 Overall Record

Record: 235-204-16 Total Units: +3.5u

📝 Match Grades

❌ Nuggets vs. Thunder (-0.47u)

Selection: Thunder -7.5 @ 47¢ | Result: LOSS Score: Oklahoma City Thunder 129 - Denver Nuggets 126 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

❌ Warriors vs. Jazz (-0.54u)

Selection: Warriors -4.5 @ 54¢ | Result: LOSS Score: Golden State Warriors 116 - Utah Jazz 119 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Knicks vs. Clippers (+0.52u)

Selection: Darius Garland Over 13.5 Points @ 48¢ | Result: WIN Score: LA Clippers 126 - New York Knicks 118 Analysis: Darius Garland scored 23 points in the game against the New York Knicks on March 9, 2026. This total comfortably exceeds the prop line of 13.5 points.

✅ Knicks vs. Clippers (+0.52u)

Selection: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds @ 48¢ | Result: WIN Score: Clippers 126 - Knicks 118 Analysis: Karl-Anthony Towns recorded 12 rebounds during the game against the Los Angeles Clippers on March 09, 2026. This total surpasses the required line of 11.5 rebounds.

✅ Utah vs. Blackhawks (+0.35u)

Selection: Utah Moneyline @ 64¢ | Result: WIN Score: Utah Jazz 119 - Golden State Warriors 116 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Warriors vs. Jazz (+0.50u)

Selection: Kyle Filipowski Over 12.5 Points | Result: WIN Score: Utah Jazz 119 - Golden State Warriors 116 Analysis: Kyle Filipowski scored 19 points in the game against the Golden State Warriors on March 9, 2026. This exceeds the prop line of 12.5 points.

✅ Nuggets vs. Thunder (+0.50u)

Selection: Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points | Result: WIN Score: Denver Nuggets 126 - Oklahoma City Thunder 129 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Grizzlies vs. 76ers (+0.56u)

Selection: 76ers -5.5 @ 43¢ | Result: WIN Score: Philadelphia 76ers 139 - Memphis Grizzlies 129 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Wizards vs. Heat (+0.53u)

Selection: Bub Carrington Over 7.5 Points @ 46¢ | Result: WIN Score: Heat 150 - Wizards 129 Analysis: Bub Carrington scored 12 points in the game against the Miami Heat on March 10, 2026. This exceeds the prop line of 7.5 points.

✅ Wizards vs. Heat (+0.53u)

Selection: Bub Carrington Over 3.5 Assists @ 46¢ | Result: WIN Score: Wizards 129 - Heat 150 Analysis: Bub Carrington recorded 6 assists in the game against the Miami Heat on March 10, 2026, surpassing the prop line of 3.5 assists.

✅ Celtics vs. Spurs (+0.53u)

Selection: Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds @ 46¢ | Result: WIN Score: Celtics 116 - Spurs 125 Analysis: On March 10, 2026, Victor Wembanyama recorded 11 rebounds in the Spurs' victory over the Celtics. Since 11 rebounds is greater than the prop line of 10.5, the bet is a winner.

✅ Blue Jackets vs. Lightning (+0.21u)

Selection: Over 5.5 Goals @ 78¢ | Result: WIN Score: Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - Tampa Bay Lightning 2 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Celtics vs. Spurs Jayson Tatum Points (+0.50u)

Selection: Jayson Tatum: Points Over 17.5 | Result: WIN Score: San Antonio Spurs 125 - Boston Celtics 116 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Wizards vs. Heat Will Riley Rebounds (+0.50u)

Selection: Will Riley: Rebounds Over 3.5 | Result: WIN Score: Miami Heat 150 - Washington Wizards 129 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Cavaliers vs. Magic (+0.30u)

Selection: Donovan Mitchell Under 26.5 Points @ 70¢ | Result: WIN Score: Cleveland Cavaliers 122 - Orlando Magic 128 Analysis: Donovan Mitchell scored 25 points in the game on March 11, 2026. Since his point total of 25 is below the line of 26.5, the 'Under' selection is a win.

❌ Raptors vs. Pelicans (-0.52u)

Selection: Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points @ 51¢ | Result: LOSS Score: New Orleans Pelicans 122 - Toronto Raptors 111 Analysis: Zion Williamson finished the game on March 11, 2026, with 19 points, which is under the line of 22.5. He shot 7-of-12 from the field and 5-of-8 from the free-throw line.

➖ Knicks vs. Jazz

Selection: Josh Hart Over 7.5 Rebounds @ 48¢ | Result: PUSH Score: Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 Analysis: Josh Hart was ruled out prior to the game on March 11, 2026, due to left knee soreness and did not play. In sports betting, a player prop is typically graded as a PUSH or VOID if the player is inactive and does not record any playing time.

✅ Knicks vs. Jazz (+0.52u)

Selection: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points @ 48¢ | Result: WIN Score: Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 Analysis: Karl-Anthony Towns scored 21 points in the game against the Utah Jazz on March 11, 2026, which is greater than the prop line of 19.5 points.

✅ Capitals vs. Flyers (+0.53u)

Selection: Flyers Moneyline @ 46¢ | Result: WIN Score: Philadelphia Flyers 4 - Washington Capitals 1 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

❌ Knicks vs. Jazz (-0.50u)

Selection: Landry Shamet: Points Over 9.5 | Result: LOSS Score: Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 Analysis: Landry Shamet scored 7 points during the game on March 11, 2026. His stat line was 3-of-5 from the field and 1-of-2 from three-point range in 30 minutes of play. Since 7 points is below the prop line of 9.5, the selection is a loss.

✅ Knicks vs. Jazz (+0.50u)

Selection: Over 229.5 | Result: WIN Score: New York Knicks 134 - Utah Jazz 117 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Suns vs. Pacers (+0.48u)

Selection: Suns -8.5 @ 51¢ | Result: WIN Score: Phoenix Suns 123 - Indiana Pacers 108 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

❌ Bucks vs. Heat (-0.56u)

Selection: Over 24.5 @ 55¢ | Result: LOSS Score: Miami Heat 112 - Milwaukee Bucks 105 Analysis: The 'Over 24.5' selection refers to the points prop for Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat), whose line was set at 24.5 following his historic 83-point performance in the previous game. In the game on March 12, 2026, Adebayo scored 21 points (along with 9 rebounds). While Giannis Antetokounmpo led all scorers with 31 points, his point prop line was set higher (consensus 25.5 or 26.5), and other players such as Pelle Larsson (28 points) had lines significantly lower than 24.5.

✅ Nuggets vs. Spurs (+0.42u)

Selection: Over 234.5 @ 57¢ | Result: WIN Score: Denver Nuggets 136 - San Antonio Spurs 131 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Nuggets vs. Spurs (+0.49u)

Selection: Nuggets Moneyline @ 51¢ | Result: WIN Score: Denver Nuggets 136 - San Antonio Spurs 131 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

❌ Blue Jackets vs. Panthers (-0.78u)

Selection: Over 4.5 @ 77¢ | Result: LOSS Score: Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - Florida Panthers 2 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score

✅ Bulls vs. Lakers - Austin Reaves Points (+0.50u)

Selection: Over 20.5 | Result: WIN Score: Bulls 130 - Lakers 142 Analysis: Austin Reaves scored 30 points in the Lakers' 142-130 victory over the Chicago Bulls on March 12, 2026. This total is well above the prop line of 20.5 points.

✅ Bulls vs. Lakers Total Points (+0.50u)

Selection: Over 231.5 | Result: WIN Score: Los Angeles Lakers 142 - Chicago Bulls 130 Analysis: Graded from ESPN final score