NFL
2026-01-04 · Morning Edition
WIN
Commanders vs. Eagles
Commanders +9.5
ANALYSIS
Our 'Dog of the Day' is backed by elite efficiency, ranking 2nd in NFL Offensive Success Rate (49.2%) and 3rd in EPA per play. This value is maximized now that the Eagles have confirmed they are resting Jalen Hurts and several defensive anchors, while the Commanders enter this 'revenge' spot motivated by a chippy, brawl-filled meeting just two weeks ago. Against a backup-heavy Philly secondary that already ranks 24th in EPA/Dropback, taking nearly double digits in a divisional grudge match provides substantial value.
Key Data
Offensive Success Rate: 49.2%, Eagles EPA/Dropback Allowed: 24th
OUTCOME
Commanders 24 - Eagles 17
Philadelphia's offensive rhythm was disrupted by the absence of starters, as the backup quarterback threw two critical interceptions in the fourth quarter. Washington capitalized on these short fields to overcome their own offensive inefficiencies. The Eagles' total collapse in the final 10 minutes allowed the 4-win Commanders to secure a spoiler victory.
FULL BREAKDOWN
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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-04 morning edition.