NFL 2026-01-04 · Morning Edition WIN

Dolphins vs. Patriots

Patriots Moneyline

ANALYSIS

We are targeting the massive offensive efficiency gap as Miami turns to rookie Quinn Ewers with star back De'Von Achane (shoulder) doubtful to play. The Patriots' elite defense is further bolstered by the return of standout DT Milton Williams from IR, making it nearly impossible for a Dolphins unit ranked last in EPA (-0.22) to sustain drives. With New England winning 12 of their last 13 games while Miami enters the finale on unstable footing, this moneyline offers the most secure path to victory.

Key Data

Offensive EPA: -0.22, Defensive Success Rate Rank: 8th

OUTCOME

Patriots 38 - Dolphins 10

New England prioritized early dominance, scoring on an opening drive highlighted by a 56-yard Stevenson run. Drake Maye was highly efficient (14/18) against an unmotivated Miami defense that has struggled in the final month of the season. The talent gap between a New England team playing for seeding and a Dolphins team finishing a sub-.500 season resulted in a non-competitive 28-point blowout.

FULL BREAKDOWN

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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-04 morning edition.