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NFL TOP PICK 2026-01-04 · Morning Edition WIN

Packers vs. Vikings

Under 44.5
76%
Entry Price
$645K
Volume
1:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
+0.24u
P&L

ANALYSIS

The Under 44.5 is a lock with the Packers resting star QB Jordan Love and likely RB Josh Jacobs, leaving third-stringer Clayton Tune to face a Vikings defense ranked 6th in DVOA. Minnesota’s offense is similarly handicapped with playmakers Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson ruled out, while Green Bay’s unit has bottomed out, scoring just one touchdown on its last nine red-zone trips. Expect a low-tempo affair as both teams field depleted lineups and struggle to find the end zone.
Key Data
Defensive DVOA: 1st, Packers Red Zone Efficiency: Bottom-10

OUTCOME

Vikings 16 - Packers 3
Green Bay rested key starters (Love, Jacobs) for the playoffs, leaving the offense in the hands of backup Joe Tune. Tune struggled immensely against Brian Flores' aggressive defense, managing only 34 passing yards and taking 4 sacks. With Green Bay unable to move the chains, the Vikings relied on a conservative ground game (C.J. Ham touchdown) to drain the clock, leading to a massive 25-point margin under the total.

FULL BREAKDOWN

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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-04 morning edition.