← Back to picks
NBA SPEC 2026-01-09 · Evening Edition LOSS

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Thunder -3.5
57%
Entry Price
$608K
Volume
8:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
-0.57u
P&L

ANALYSIS

We are prioritizing Oklahoma City’s top-ranked defensive efficiency (101.2) and league-leading forced turnover rate (18.1%) to extend their dominant 15-game head-to-head winning streak over Memphis. While the Thunder are without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, they face a Grizzlies roster in 'survival mode' missing Ja Morant, Zach Edey, and most of their primary backcourt. This defensive profile projects a +6.2 point differential against a Memphis team that is currently struggling with extreme rotation instability and coming off a 117-98 blowout loss to Phoenix.
Key Data
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2, Forced Turnover Rate: 18.1%, Projected Differential: +6.2

OUTCOME

Thunder 117 - Grizzlies 116
OKC's defense forced 20 turnovers, leading to 28 transition points. Memphis lacked a primary shot-creator to settle the offense during OKC's decisive 15-2 third-quarter run.

FULL BREAKDOWN

Listen to the Evening Episode →
Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-09 evening edition.