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NFL TOP PICK 2026-01-11 · Evening Edition WIN

Bills vs. Jaguars

Bills -1.5
44%
Entry Price
$1.1M
Volume
1:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
+0.56u
P&L

ANALYSIS

We are backing the Bills as road favorites in this Wild Card showdown, leveraging their 2nd-ranked Offensive EPA/Play and 3rd-ranked Success Rate against a Jaguars secondary that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA allowed. While Buffalo must navigate this test without key defensive starters Terrel Bernard and Maxwell Hairston, their league-leading rushing attack and offensive efficiency provide the edge to halt Jacksonville’s eight-game win streak and cover the narrow spread.
Key Data
Offensive EPA/Play Rank: 2nd, DVOA Differential: +14

OUTCOME

Bills 31 - Jaguars 20
Josh Allen accounted for four total touchdowns, successfully attacking the Jaguars' linebackers in space. The Bills' defense held the Jaguars' run game to under 3 yards per carry, forcing Trevor Lawrence into high-pressure passing situations.

FULL BREAKDOWN

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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-11 evening edition.