NBA
SPEC
2026-01-11 · Evening Edition
LOSS
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
1H Over 121.5
ANALYSIS
Our pick is backed by San Antonio’s #3 ranking in first-half pace and a vulnerable 29th-ranked 1H defensive rating, which faces a Minnesota offense averaging 125.1 points over its last 10 games. Both teams enter on the second night of a back-to-back following high-scoring Saturday matchups, including a Wolves defense that just surrendered 146 points to Cleveland. With Mike Conley returning from rest and Victor Wembanyama confirmed as active after a 21-point performance yesterday, we expect tired legs to favor a high-volume scoring environment early.
Key Data
1H Pace Rank: 3rd, 1H Defensive Rating: 29th
OUTCOME
Timberwolves 104 - Spurs 103
San Antonio's lack of interior rim protection in the first half allowed Minnesota to shoot 62% in the paint. High pace and poor defensive closeouts from both squads resulted in 14 combined first-half three-pointers.
FULL BREAKDOWN
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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-11 evening edition.