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NBA TOP PICK 2026-01-15 · Evening Edition WIN

Grizzlies vs. Magic

Grizzlies vs. Magic: Under 231.5
56%
Entry Price
$572K
Volume
2:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
+0.44u
P&L

ANALYSIS

Our model projects a 56.5% probability for the Under, as the market hasn't fully adjusted for a Grizzlies offense missing Ja Morant (calf) and Zach Edey (ankle) while playing at a neutral site in Berlin. Memphis has seen the Under hit in four of their last five games, posting a dismal 108.9 offensive rating during that stretch without their primary shot creators. This limited firepower faces an Orlando defense that remains the gold standard for shot suppression, likely leading to a low-efficiency, grinding tempo in this international matchup.
Key Data
Defensive EFG% Suppression: 2nd, Half-court Success Rate: 22nd

OUTCOME

Magic 118 - Grizzlies 111
A defensive 12-point third quarter for Memphis served as the anchor for the Under. The total reached 229 as both teams emphasized interior defense and forced contested perimeter shots, preventing the high-volume scoring run needed to exceed the 231.5 line.

FULL BREAKDOWN

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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-15 evening edition.