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NBA TOP PICK 2026-01-22 · Evening Edition LOSS

Nuggets vs. Wizards

Jonas Valančiūnas Under 12.5 Points
48%
Entry Price
$181K
Volume
7:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
-0.48u
P&L

ANALYSIS

We are backing the Under as Valančiūnas is returning from a 21-day absence due to a calf strain and is expected to be on a restricted workload in his first game back. Although the Nuggets are thin at center with Nikola Jokić sidelined, Valančiūnas has averaged just 8.5 points per game this season and faces a Washington interior anchored by Alex Sarr, who has significantly improved the team's ability to limit efficient touches in the paint.
Key Data
Denver Interior Defense: 0.88 PPP allowed, Denver Defensive Efficiency: Rank 4

OUTCOME

Nuggets 107 - Wizards 97
Expected a slow ramp-up for Valanciunas, but his physical presence against a small Washington frontcourt led to 16 points in just 22 minutes. He was highly efficient around the rim, rendering the Under thesis moot by the third quarter.

FULL BREAKDOWN

Listen to the Evening Episode →
Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-01-22 evening edition.