Patriots vs. Broncos

While Denver struggled with efficiency metrics throughout the season (30th in EPA allowed per rush), their run defense was most recently exposed for 183 rushing yards in last week's Divisional Round. Rhamondre Stevenson enters the AFC Championship as New England’s clear RB1, totaling 123 yards over his last two playoff games and fully recovering from a minor eye injury suffered on January 18. With the Patriots favored by 4.5 and Denver forced to start backup QB Jarrett Stidham, a high-volume, run-heavy game script creates an ideal environment for Stevenson to clear 48.5 yards.