Grizzlies vs. Rockets

While the Rockets' metrics remain elite (#2 Defensive Efficiency, #1 Rebounding), a double-digit spread is an over-correction for a Memphis squad that has kept consecutive losses against the Pelicans and Hawks within a six-point margin. Despite the news that Ja Morant (elbow) will miss at least three weeks alongside starters Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, the Grizzlies' grit in high-possession games combined with Houston's own missing playmaking (VanVleet) makes taking the inflated points the value play.