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NBA 2026-02-05 · Evening Edition LOSS

76ers vs. Lakers

Joel Embiid: Under 28.5 Points
48%
Entry Price
$365K
Volume
10:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
-0.48u
P&L

ANALYSIS

Our statistical model identifies a 0.72 probability for the Under as Embiid enters tonight listed as questionable due to right knee injury management, having been held to just 24 points in his last appearance. Facing a Lakers defense that ranks Top 5 in opponent points in the paint and is now anchored by Deandre Ayton, Embiid’s current efficiency struggle—with a True Shooting percentage 4.2% below his career mean—suggests a limited ceiling while playing through lingering leg soreness.
Key Data
Market Probability: 0.72, True Shooting Variance: -4.2%, Lakers Paint Defense: Top 5

OUTCOME

Lakers 119 - 76ers 115
Embiid finished with 27 points. AD stayed home on Embiid's pump-fakes and didn't allow him to get to the free-throw line (only 4 FTAs), which was the primary causal factor in keeping him under 28.5.

FULL BREAKDOWN

Listen to the Evening Episode →
Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-02-05 evening edition.