76ers vs. Trail Blazers

We identify a significant regression candidate in Avdija, who is currently questionable with a back injury that has sidelined him for nine of Portland's last 13 games. Before his latest absence, he failed to reach this 21.5-point threshold in consecutive outings (11 and 17 points) and now faces a Philadelphia defense ranking in the top half of the league for efficiency. Our model signals a 76.5% probability for the under, anticipating limited volume and mobility as he works back into the rotation.