Grizzlies vs. Heat

We are targeting Miami as their +9.4 home Net Rating and 61% simulation win probability are reinforced by a nearly full-strength roster following the February 20 return of Tyler Herro. Memphis is severely compromised on the second leg of a road back-to-back, missing nine rotation players including Ja Morant, Santi Aldama, and Zach Edey. Given the Heat's 146-114 blowout victory in their previous meeting this season, the massive depth disparity favors a double-digit margin.