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NBA TOP PICK 2026-03-01 · Morning Edition WIN

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Nikola Jokić Points Over 27.5
44%
Entry Price
$174K
Volume
3:30 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
+0.56u
P&L

ANALYSIS

We are backing the over on Jokić as he enters this marquee matchup averaging a dominant 31.5 PPG, having already logged two 40-point performances in the season’s opening week. Denver’s current lack of shooting depth has forced Jokić into a higher-volume role (20.5 FGA), and he has cleared this 27.5 mark in three of his last four games. We expect his individual aggression to remain elevated in this high-stakes playoff rematch against a Minnesota defense he historically exploits for high efficiency.
Key Data
Shark Fair Prob 0.73 vs 0.65 Market; efficiency vs Gobert 1.28 pts/FGA; projected 30.1 points.

OUTCOME

Timberwolves 117 - Nuggets 108
Nikola Jokić scored 35 points in the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 1, 2026. This exceeds the prop line of 27.5 points.

FULL BREAKDOWN

Listen to the Morning Episode →
Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-03-01 morning edition.