Lakers vs. Nuggets

We are backing the Over as Jokić enters a high-stakes seeding battle with key starters Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson officially ruled out tonight, forcing a significantly higher usage rate in the frontcourt. Our model's 32.2-point projection is heavily supported by his historical 32.5% usage against Lakers' drop-coverage and an elite 1.42 points per shot attempt in this specific matchup.