NBA SPEC 2026-03-07 · Morning Edition LOSS

Warriors vs. Thunder

Chet Holmgren: Points Over 16.5

ANALYSIS

We are targeting the Over on Holmgren’s 16.5-point line as he enters this matchup fresh off a 28-point explosion on March 4th where he tied a career-high with six 3-pointers. With Jalen Williams (17.5 PPG) and Isaiah Hartenstein both confirmed out for tonight, Holmgren’s offensive usage will spike against a depleted Warriors frontcourt missing Jimmy Butler and potentially Kristaps Porzingis. This increased volume, combined with his 19.7 PPG average against Golden State this season, allows him to fully exploit the vertical mismatch created by SGA’s gravity.

Key Data

41% 3PT efficiency; Proj 19.4 points vs 16.5 line; Fair prob 0.56.

OUTCOME

Warriors 97 - Thunder 104

Chet Holmgren did not play in the game on March 07, 2026, due to an illness (flu). He was a late scratch and did not suit up. In player prop betting, if a player does not participate in the game, the selection is typically graded as a PUSH (void).

FULL BREAKDOWN

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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-03-07 morning edition.