Nuggets vs. Spurs

Our projection accounts for San Antonio's top-3 pace and Denver's struggling road defensive rating (118.4), but the total is further bolstered by Denver entering the second night of a back-to-back after a 129-point explosion against Houston. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are in peak form, combining for a 30-point game and a triple-double respectively on Wednesday, while the Spurs' 5th-ranked offense (118.4 ORTG) just dropped 125 on Boston behind Victor Wembanyama's 39-point night. Given that their previous meeting this season resulted in a 139-136 shootout, the market is failing to price in the extreme efficiency of these two surging offenses.