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NBA SPEC 2026-03-12 · Morning Edition WIN

Nuggets vs. Spurs

Nuggets Moneyline
51%
Entry Price
$429K
Volume
8:00 PM ET
Game Time (ET)
+0.42u
P&L

ANALYSIS

We are backing the Nuggets at +207 as the market over-rotates on the Spurs' record, ignoring that Victor Wembanyama was downgraded to questionable (right ankle soreness) following his 37-minute outing on Tuesday. Denver enters at full strength with Nikola Jokic active and Jamal Murray coming off a dominant 30-point performance in a blowout win where starters rested the entire fourth quarter to mitigate this back-to-back disadvantage. This price fails to reflect the Nuggets' veteran advantage and the potential absence of San Antonio's defensive anchor, offering massive equity against a public-favored home team.
Key Data
Nuggets 118.4 ORtg with Jokic active; Model suggests a 41% true win rate vs 32.5% market implied; 8.5% edge.

OUTCOME

Denver Nuggets 136 - San Antonio Spurs 131
Graded from ESPN final score

FULL BREAKDOWN

Listen to the Morning Episode →
Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-03-12 morning edition.