NHL
SPEC
2026-03-13 · Morning Edition
PENDING
Kings vs. Islanders
Over 4.5
ANALYSIS
Our 5.7-goal projection is bolstered by the Kings’ defensive struggles, as they have surrendered 3.9 goals per game over their last 10 outings while ranking 25th in penalty killing (75.7%). The Islanders' recent form adds to the scoring potential, coming off a four-goal comeback win against St. Louis and a 5-3 high-scoring loss to the Kings just last week. With Adrian Kempe on a six-game point streak and the Islanders' Matthew Schaefer leading a resurgent offense, the 4.5-goal total is exceptionally low for two teams desperate for points in tight playoff races.
Key Data
Projected 5.7 total goals; 0.78 fair probability vs 0.73 market price; 5.0% edge.
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Full analysis and discussion of this pick in the 2026-03-13 morning edition.