Warriors vs. Celtics

Our model identifies significant value on a 21.5 line that remains depressed due to Tatum’s recent return from Achilles surgery, even as he has reached 20+ points in four straight games and stabilized at 32 minutes per night. With Golden State missing key perimeter defenders like Moses Moody and interior veteran Al Horford, Tatum’s projected 27.8 points offers a high-confidence buffer against a market yet to price in his rapid conditioning recovery.